By Paul A. Djupe

It was strange enough that religious conservatives embraced Donald Trump once he became the Republican front-runner in early 2016, but for some that embrace went a whole lot further. Some had prophesied that Trump would have a special role to play in God’s plan well back in the 2000s, but that notion was more widely promoted starting at the point of his presidential run. Lance Wallnau pronounced in 2015 that “God has given this man [Trump] an anointing for the mantle of government in the United States and he will prosper.” Many others took up that notion, including Paula White, Rick Perry, and more. Some called him a modern King Cyrus – not a believer himself, but someone in power who was God’s chosen agent to help believers.

Belief in Trump’s anointing was not limited to charismatic elites, but was believed by a surprising number of Americans. As we wrote in 2020, “In 2019, among white Protestants who attended church weekly or more often, 29.6 percent believed Trump was anointed by God to be president. But by March 2020, that figure had climbed to 49 percent.” Then we let the matter drop for the most part, at least on the blog.

But I have data that extends past March 2020 and there’s a lot of history to contend with after that critical month when the coronavirus made its appearance worldwide. In each of four surveys from March 2020 to March 2023, the statement was presented in the same way, with respondents asked if they agree or disagree that, “Donald Trump was anointed by God to become President of the United States.” These surveys were also taken from the general population (weighted to resemble Census demographic estimates).

The crescendo of religious significance to Trumpian politics hit its apex around the 2020 election. With political and religious figures presaging widespread persecution if Biden won, it is no surprise that conservative Christians would view Trump placed as the GOP nominee to save them from this certain fate. From the data shown below, 27.6 percent of the adult population agreed that he was anointed by God, which increased a few points to about 30 percent by the election. Agreement declined considerably by March 2021, a few months after the Insurrection to 20.7 percent, and has fallen to 13 percent by March 2023. Thirteen percent is not an inconsequential number, but Trump’s religious stature is not what it was three years ago.

So, who are the holdouts? I can’t emphasize this enough: not all Democrats are religious nones and not all Republicans are evangelicals. There was substantial belief among Democrats in 2020 that Trump was anointed (they were also likely to believe that all presidents are so positioned by God). Their support for that notion dropped with time. It’s useful to note that their rate dropped at the same rate as it did among Republicans – by about 60 percent. Republicans were quite likely to consider Trump anointed (in the low 40s), which plummeted after the election to 26% in March 2021 and then 18% in March 2023. So Republicans are still almost twice as likely as Democrats to believe Trump is anointed by God. Clearly not all Republicans – not even close.

The subset of Republicans and Democrats is clearly distinctive in the same way that the new Speaker of the House Mike Johnson is distinctive in his belief that God placed members of Congress in their positions. For a number of reasons based on his prior commitments, his association with David Barton, association with NAR prophets, and more, observers have labeled Mike Johnson a Christian nationalist, if in a tailored suit. Is there an association of Christian nationalism to the continued belief that Trump was anointed by God to be president?

Yes, there is a strong relationship with Christian nationalism (measured in the same way as Whitehead and Perry), though it has weakened significantly since 2020. The peak, of course, was right before the 2020 election, when the top quartile of Christian nationalism peaked at 63 percent agreeing that Trump was anointed. Since it has dropped in half to 32 percent agreement. The other quartiles of (weaker) Christian nationalism support have seen their anointing beliefs drop even more drastically so anointing beliefs are only a third of what they were in October 2020. While Christian nationalism plays a role here, it is clearly not determinative – there is something else that is propping up such beliefs.

I strongly suspect that a particular form of religious conservatism is at root of the sustained belief in Trump’s anointing that is connected to the elites promoting the idea in the first place and who continue to suggest it. That is, those who believe in a God that is active in world affairs, evil forces that work through their political and other enemies, and that the world is hurtling toward a final confrontation between those forces are much more likely to adopt the belief that Trump is anointed. This belief system is otherwise known as apocalypticism (I have discussed it extensively on the blog and am writing a book about its role in American politics with Andrew Lewis and Jake Neiheisel).

Apocalypticism is more strongly connected to believing in Trump’s anointing – it was essentially unanimous among the most apocalyptic in March 2021 (the earliest point at which I have access to the measures needed to make an apocalypticism scale), though has declined since that point. Still, a majority of the most ardent apocalyptics still contend Trump was anointed by God. In part that is because they really like Trump (feeling thermometer above 70), but it is also because their belief in God’s work with leaders in the US is firm and general. That is, the survey also asked if “all presidents” are anointed by God and just below a majority of the most apocalyptic agreed (just shy of the rate of agreeing that Trump is anointed – 56%).

Let’s recap. Belief in Trump’s anointing was widespread in the runup to the 2020 election and has declined considerably since – the belief is just about a third as popular now as it was in October 2020. It has more staying power among Republicans, Christian nationalists, and apocalyptics – in ascending order. I would not make the mistake of thinking that such believers are simply more likely to accept the status quo and accept leaders and outcomes as ordained. No, apocalyptic believers are also more willing to turn to violence to reclaim America, eschew democracy if it returns outcomes out of step with their beliefs, and support groups ready to take extreme actions to support their favorite causes. A sizable minority is still considerably worked up over the characters and consequences of American democracy, and no doubt have reinforced misgivings after the results of the 2023 off-year elections just held. Well more than one representative has argued that Ohio should just ignore the results of the election: “Direct democracy should not exist.”

Professor Paul A. Djupe directs the Data for Political Research program at Denison University, is an affiliated scholar with PRRI, the series editor of Religious Engagement in Democratic Politics (Temple), and co-creator of religioninpublic.blog. Further information about his work can be found on his website and on TwiX.